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What Quad 1 wins imply


12:10 AM ET

John GasawayESPN Insider

CloseESPN Insider faculty basketball contributor
First started protecting faculty hoops in 2004
Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Avenue Journal

Editor’s word: The NCAA match Bubble Watch has been up to date by video games of Sunday, March Three.

When Indiana beat Michigan State for a second time this season, the sport was promptly filed away because the Hoosiers’ sixth Quad 1 win of the season. Saying a group “has six Quad 1 wins” sounds spectacular, and, definitely, an IU program that has misplaced 12 of its previous 15 video games can use each favorable sound chew it will possibly get.

However what are we actually speaking about once we discuss Quad 1 victories? Listed here are some tough guidelines of thumb that ought to serve you effectively between now and Choice Sunday:

1. Quad 1 wins have a tendency to come back up solely when a profile’s uncommon

When you’re in a dialog through which Quad 1 wins are being parsed, it is possible the group in query is not falling conveniently right into a available class.

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Kansas has 10 Quad 1 wins and can get seed. Gonzaga has 4 and can get a terrific seed. Nobody argues the Jayhawks must be on a better seed line than the Bulldogs on the premise of Quad 1 wins. We simply do not feel like we have to resort to the NCAA’s quadrant system to make sense of both KU or the Zags — or certainly most groups within the projected subject.

Conversely, it’s possible you’ll proceed to listen to about Indiana’s six Quad 1 victories, Nevada’s one and, maybe, Auburn’s two. The Hoosiers, Wolf Pack and Tigers current us with considerably eccentric profiles and, thus, more difficult questions.

Ought to an IU group that has misplaced 12 of its previous 15 obtain an at-large bid? The place ought to Eric Musselman’s group be seeded? Does it matter that Auburn’s wonderful NET rating is, to an uncommon diploma, constructed on caring for enterprise in much less difficult video games?

In such discussions, Quad 1 wins can at instances be used as a lot for assist as for illumination. (Observe moreover that Nevada’s one Quad 1 win will depend on Utah State staying within the high 30 of the NET rankings. Even with out the Aggies enjoying any video games, that standing might change from day after day.)

2. The Huge Ten and SEC are Quad 1-opportunity factories

Nebraska, Texas A&M, Penn State, Arkansas, Rutgers, Missouri and Illinois all have extra Quad 1 wins than Nevada. This truth maybe illustrates the peril of counting on “Quad 1 wins” as a straight counting stat, the way in which we did with rebounds again within the dangerous previous days.

The Huge Ten and the SEC every haven’t any fewer than 11 groups within the high 75 of the NET rankings, that means any highway recreation in opposition to any of these packages is a Quad 1 contest. Such alternatives abound in these conferences, and, except a group is aberrantly hapless, a pair Quad 1 victories or extra will possible be the outcome.

Three. A low variety of Quad 1 alternatives does not essentially imply what you assume

A part of the rationale Nevada is tough to guage in March is that the Wolf Pack’s nonconference schedule did not play out as most individuals would have anticipated in September.

Within the offseason, Musselman agreed to true highway video games at USC and Utah and a neutral-floor date with Arizona State. On the time, video games like that may have regarded to most observers like a part of an honest nonconference slate.

As a substitute, right here we’re on the finish of the season and neither the Trojans nor the Utes are wherever to be discovered within the high 75 of the NET rankings. Nor do the Solar Devils clock in as a part of the highest 50. In consequence, not one of the above video games present up as Quad 1 contests on the Nevada profile.

Nevada received all three video games, however it may be tough to establish Quad 1 video games upfront. We should always in all probability preserve that in thoughts when wanting again at Quad 1 numbers in hindsight.

This is how we’re projecting the bubble proper now:

Bids from conventional “one-bid” leagues: 23 groups
Locks: 27 groups
The bubble: 31 groups for 18 obtainable spots
Needs to be in: 7 groups
Work to do: 24 groups

ACC | Huge 12| Huge East | Huge Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others

ACC

Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Needs to be in: Syracuse
Work to do: NC State, Clemson

Needs to be in

Syracuse Orange

With Quad 1 alternatives there for the taking in every of its remaining two video games, Syracuse now has one thing of a flooring beneath its projected No. Eight or 9 seed. Barring probably the most calamitous outings at residence in opposition to Virginia and/or on the highway at Clemson, it is unlikely that the Orange’s seed will fall considerably and even in any respect. Then once more, Jim Boeheim’s guys might in fact enhance their bracket place with one or (particularly) two wins in video games that shall be seen as very completely different (a win in opposition to the Cavaliers can be seen because the far greater deal) although, on paper, they’re extra comparable in diploma of problem than one may assume. (Up to date: March 2)

Work to do

NC State Wolfpack

Bubble Watch wonders whether or not NC State’s place is perhaps rather less stable than it seems. Granted, Choice Sunday’s nearly right here and the Wolfpack are showing in mock brackets as a No. 10 seed, eight and even 10 groups away from true peril on the minimize line. Plus, Kevin Keatts’ group is 20-9 general and Eight-Eight within the ACC. That each one appears and seems like a match group, and a 2-Zero end at residence in opposition to Georgia Tech and on the highway at Boston Faculty will, one presumes, end the job. That stated, NC State’s simply 2-Eight in Quad 1 video games, with the wins coming at residence in opposition to Auburn and on a impartial flooring in opposition to Penn State. What if a group with that profile loses at BC, and bows out early within the ACC match? Hold profitable, Wolfpack. (Up to date: March 2)

Clemson Tigers

Bubble Watch is now not sure Clemson can win an at-large bid based mostly on regular-season exertions alone. It might as an alternative require not less than one neutral-floor victory in opposition to a giant identify within the ACC match. True, profitable on the highway at Notre Dame, at residence in opposition to Syracuse and even each can be nice. However neither of these video games qualifies as Quad 1 and even profitable each would go away the Tigers 19-12 general, 9-9 within the ACC and 1-9 in Quad 1 video games. These numbers pretty scream “simply missed.” It seems Brad Brownell’s group might have work to do in Charlotte later this month. (Up to date: March 2)

Huge 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor
Work to do: Texas, Oklahoma, TCU

Work to do

Texas Longhorns

A lot has modified since Bubble Watch 2019 launched in these halcyon days of early February, however one theme has remained remarkably correct throughout the intervening and tumultuous weeks. Texas continues to own one of many weirdest profiles of any bubble group. The world at giant appears at a so-so 16-13 file that however consists of excellent wins over North Carolina on a impartial flooring and Purdue at residence and renders a verdict within the type of an anticipated No. 10 seed. Now, after trouncing Iowa State 86-69 in Austin, the Longhorns are moreover very near having the Huge 12’s greatest offense in convention play. Whereas Kerwin Roach II continues to take a seat attributable to suspension, Shaka Sensible’s group retains mixing shut losses with snug wins. The Horns are 2-7 in Huge 12 video games determined by single digits. (Up to date: March 2)

Oklahoma Sooners

Not many groups by historical past have been 6-10 in convention play but capable of conclude that they are nonetheless within the hunt for an at-large bid. Then there’s Oklahoma in 2019. The Sooners are nonetheless being proven as a No. 10 or perhaps a No. 9 seed in mock brackets thanks to 2 primary elements. First, there was a comparatively robust nonconference efficiency, highlighted by wins over Wofford (at residence) and Florida (on a impartial flooring). Second, membership within the Huge 12 confers the privilege of figuring out that lots of your losses aren’t “dangerous” losses. It may appear loopy at first look, however OU remains to be alive. (Up to date: March 2)

TCU Horned Frogs

It’s a reality universally acknowledged that major-conference information do not matter when it comes to choice, significantly not in 2019. However what if TCU finishes 6-12 within the Huge 12? Is the committee actually going to set that precedent? A group hasn’t received an at-large bid with fewer than eight wins in an 18-game convention schedule since 1998. The Horned Frogs have been regarded as a No. 11 seed going into their 81-66 defeat at residence by the hands of Texas Tech. TCU has misplaced 5 of its final six, is now 6-10 and it closes with a house recreation in opposition to Kansas State and one on the highway at Texas. The profile ace within the gap for Jamie Dixon’s group is its season sweep of Iowa State. We would have the chance to see simply how a lot weight that carries. (Up to date: March 2)

Huge East

Locks: Marquette, Villanova
Work to do: St. John’s, Seton Corridor, Georgetown, Creighton, Xavier

Work to do

St. John’s Purple Storm

St. John’s has misplaced three of its previous 4, and it is time to ask what the results is perhaps if Chris Mullin’s group continues this tendency and comes up quick on the highway at Xavier within the final recreation of the season. In that case the Purple Storm would end the season at 20-11 general and Eight-10 in Huge East play. The Johnnies in fact posted a Three-1 file in opposition to Marquette and Villanova, however this identical group was additionally swept on the season by each Windfall and DePaul. In reality, the Johnnies’ file in opposition to Quads 2 and three (6-6) is worse than their file in opposition to Quad 1 (6-Four). It is an odd profile that has brought on no small diploma of confusion. A vocal minority of mock brackets, for instance, is not forecasting any explicit bid jeopardy for St. John’s. Bubble Watch is not so certain about that within the occasion of a loss in Cincinnati. (Up to date: March Three)

Seton Corridor Pirates

The Pirates are hanging on for pricey life after dropping 77-71 in double-overtime at Georgetown when Kevin Willard’s group entered the night listed as one of many final 4 groups within the subject. However here is the factor with Seton Corridor. Not like lots of their equally determined friends, the Pirates, although 16-12 general and 7-9 within the Huge East, have the right alternative to play their method into the sector. SHU finishes with residence video games in opposition to Marquette and Villanova. Successful one or particularly each of these can be a high-quality bookend to put alongside the victory at Maryland and, in fact, the one at Madison Sq. Backyard over Kentucky. (Up to date: March 2)

Georgetown Hoyas

It is not going to be simple for the Hoyas. Sitting at 18-11 general and Eight-Eight within the Huge East appears eminently respectable, as do the three Quad 1 wins. However Georgetown’s simply Eight-5 this season in opposition to Quads 2 and three, and the group’s NET rating going into the 77-71 double-overtime win at residence over Seton Corridor was within the 70s (which can, if the brand new metric seems for use a bit just like the previous one was, grow to be prohibitively low). It will not be simple, however Bubble Watch can not less than envision a path that begins with profitable at DePaul and at Marquette and ends with beating both the Golden Eagles or Villanova within the Huge East match semifinals. Go to it, Hoyas.

Creighton Bluejays

Welcome again, Bluejays. This class is known as “work to do,” and there’s a lot work to be performed to get you into the match subject. Nonetheless, for those who needed to decide one promotional occasion with which to launch your assault on the bracket, selecting up your third Quad 1 victory of the season within the type of a 66-60 highway win at Marquette is unquestionably a wonderful alternative. For the stability of the Huge East season, Greg McDermott’s group was a pin cushion for the cruelest of the hoops gods, because the Bluejays misplaced additional time video games not solely to the aforementioned Golden Eagles but in addition to Villanova and to Seton Corridor. Now, nonetheless, CU is beginning to even these accounts. Creighton wraps up the season with residence video games in opposition to Windfall and DePaul, and two wins there would ship the boys from Omaha into the Huge East match at 18-13 general and 9-9 in-conference. The Bluejays have a shot.

Xavier Musketeers

Winners of 5 in a row, the Musketeers are 16-13 general and Eight-Eight within the Huge East. Travis Steele’s males personal three Quad 1 wins, and so they end the season at Butler and at residence in opposition to St. John’s. Say XU wins out and reaches the semifinals of the convention match. Which may be enough, relying on the scale of the bubble. Talking of the ever-changing bubble, you’ll have seen Bubble Watch typically finds itself saluting Huge East groups with very actual but nonetheless tenuous match potentialities. Nicely, have a look at the NET rankings: Marquette and Villanova are within the high 30, however the convention locations zero groups in between Nos. 31 and 50. That is “must be in” central, as seen with groups like Washington, Baylor, Ole Miss and Syracuse. The Huge East, nonetheless, has chosen to comply with a extra suspenseful path, as evidenced by its domination between Nos. 51 and 75: Creighton, St. John’s, Butler, Seton Corridor, Xavier and Georgetown are all wedged in there. It may be a wild few days.

Huge Ten

Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Needs to be in: Iowa
Work to do: Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana

Needs to be in

Iowa Hawkeyes

On the danger of overreacting to occasions, Iowa is not doing its seed any favors. A group that Bubble Watch has been attempting to maneuver to a lock for over every week now has as an alternative misplaced back-to-back video games to Ohio State (on the highway) and Rutgers (in Iowa Metropolis) by a mixed margin of 34 factors. Previous to the Quad Three loss to the Scarlet Knights, the Hawkeyes have been 17-Zero in opposition to Quads 2, Three and Four. Fran McCaffery missed the night attributable to a two-game suspension stemming from a postgame tirade in Columbus directed at referee Steve McJunkins, and maybe that had some connection to Iowa’s sleepy efficiency on senior evening. In any occasion, one thing within the neighborhood of the No. 7 seed the Hawkeyes have been taking a look at may now require extra wins, beginning with upcoming visits to Wisconsin and Nebraska. (Up to date: March 2)

Work to do

Ohio State Buckeyes

Earlier than Chris Holtmann’s group went on the highway to play Purdue, Bubble Watch flung out the next reckless assertion: “Ohio State nonetheless has three difficult video games but to play (on the highway in opposition to Purdue and Northwestern and at residence in opposition to Wisconsin), however the worst-case state of affairs going into the Huge Ten match is now 18-13 general and Eight-12 in-conference. With these 18 wins, together with the one at Cincinnati, that ought to get the job performed even within the worst case.” Now the Buckeyes seem intent on testing this very speculation. The short-handed OSU group that performed with out Kaleb Wesson (who was suspended indefinitely for an unspecified violation) and misplaced 86-51 at West Lafayette is certainly a candidate to lose two extra instances. In any occasion, the No. 9 seed Ohio State was carrying in mock brackets earlier than the blowout at Mackey Enviornment is wanting a bit lofty. (Up to date: March 2)

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Now Minnesota’s season really begins. At 18-11 and Eight-10 within the Huge Ten, the Gophers can play their method into the match by profitable one or, higher but, two Quad 1 video games in opposition to Purdue in Minneapolis and Maryland in Faculty Park. Richard Pitino’s group seems to be proper on the road between “in” and “out,” together with fellow friends in peril — Temple, Clemson and Utah State. Minnesota made an emphatic assertion by profitable at Wisconsin in January earlier than pretty staggering by a 2-6 February. March now beckons, and the Gophers have what each group says it needs. Jordan Murphy and his mates have an opportunity. (Up to date: Feb. 28)

Indiana Hoosiers

With nonetheless one other thrilling win over Michigan State and a season sweep in opposition to the Spartans, Indiana is again within the bubble dialogue. The Hoosiers can declare six Quad 1 wins on the yr, and, whereas in addition they have suffered 9 Quad 1 defeats, the excessive variety of high quality victories is enough for IU’s profile to not less than get a listening to “within the room” as they are saying. If (and it is no small if) Archie Miller’s males win at Illinois and at residence in opposition to Rutgers, they’re going to end the season at 17-14 general and Eight-12 within the Huge Ten. That would get the job performed. (Up to date: March 2)

Pac-12

Needs to be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State

Needs to be in

Washington Huskies

After the disastrous loss at Cal, Mike Hopkins’ group returned to kind with a 62-61 win at Stanford. Particularly, the Washington protection resurfaced after its borderline stunning disappearance in Berkeley of all locations. The Huskies will now wrap up their season with residence video games in opposition to Oregon and Oregon State, that means UW’s ultimate mark in a down Pac-12 is prone to be 15-Three and even 16-2. That convention file (headlined by Quad 1 wins at Oregon and at Colorado) plus an honest displaying within the convention match might translate right into a No. Eight seed, give or take a seed line. (Up to date: March Three)

Work to do

Arizona State Solar Devils

This is a Bubble Watch enjoyable truth: Arizona State is the one group within the “lock,” “must be in” or “work to do” classes that has misplaced video games in all 4 quadrants. Sure, the losses at residence to Princeton and to Washington State qualify as Quad Four defeats, and, certainly, the Solar Devils are a notably so-so 10-Four in opposition to Quads Three and Four. See, that is the form of factor we miss with our single-minded concentrate on simply one of many quadrants. Now, let’s focus single-mindedly on Quad 1: ASU’s win in Tempe in opposition to Kansas in addition to ones on a impartial flooring in opposition to Mississippi State and Utah State may get this group a bid supplied its NET rating is not too controversially low. Going into Sunday evening’s 74-71 win at Oregon State, that rating was within the excessive 60s and Bobby Hurley’s group was on Lunardi’s “final 4 in” record. It might work out as is, but when the Solar Devils wish to really feel protected there’s work to do. (Up to date: March Three)

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Needs to be in: Auburn, Ole Miss
Work to do: Florida, Alabama

Needs to be in

Auburn Tigers

March is a high-quality time to file your group’s greatest win of the yr, and that is what beating Mississippi State 80-75 at house is for Auburn. Perhaps, simply possibly, the win in opposition to the Bulldogs will mark the start of a convergence between the Tigers’ stats and their precise basketball outcomes. Going into the sport in opposition to MSU, for instance, Bruce Pearl’s group was a ho-hum Eight-7 in SEC play and listed as a No. Eight seed in mock brackets, but popping up all the way in which up at No. 24 within the NET rankings. Auburn can slim this record-vs.-NET hole nonetheless additional, because the Tigers shut with Quad 1 alternatives at Alabama and at residence in opposition to Tennessee. (Up to date: March 2)

Ole Miss Rebels

You may bear in mind a time not too way back when Bubble Watch was oohing and aahing over the thrilling video games being performed by Iowa that have been all the time coming right down to the ultimate seconds. Nicely, that torch has now been handed to Ole Miss. For a 3rd consecutive recreation, the Rebels have been embroiled in a contest whose end result was doubtful till the very finish of the 40th minute. Sadly for Kermit Davis and his males, they’ve now misplaced two of these in a row, the primary at residence in opposition to Tennessee and the second 74-73 on the highway at Arkansas. Good factor for Ole Miss a Quad 1 loss in Fayetteville will not do grievous hurt to what’s anticipated to be a No. 9 seed. Moreover, the Rebels can nonetheless enhance that seed with a win at residence in opposition to Kentucky on Tuesday evening. (Up to date: March 2)

Work to do

Florida Gators

Everybody knew Georgia was due. The Bulldogs had performed LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Auburn into the 40th minute and misplaced each time in consecutive video games main into the highway date at Florida. This time, nonetheless, the Bulldogs prevailed 61-55. It is the worst loss on the Gators’ profile, and simply their second Quad Three defeat of the season. However Mike White’s guys can expunge the reminiscence of this recreation with a win at residence in opposition to LSU, or maybe one on the highway at Kentucky. Moreover, Florida has some room to spare, having gone into the sport with UGA predicted to be a No. 9 seed. It is a dangerous loss, however a season sweep in opposition to Will Wade’s Tigers would stability that fairly properly. (Up to date: March 2)

Alabama Crimson Tide

Typically a win that everybody says is “large” in actual time really seems to be much more vital. Alabama’s victory at residence in January over Kentucky is wanting that method in March. Take away these 40 minutes, and also you’re left with a Crimson Tide profile the place the perfect win and certainly solely Quad 1 victory is the sport the place Avery Johnson’s guys prevailed at residence in opposition to Mississippi State. That is a fairly good notch to have in your belt, certain, however the UK win has lifted the Tide to a unique a part of the dialogue completely. At 17-12 general and Eight-Eight within the SEC, Alabama might now be enjoying to climb up from what’s anticipated to be a No. 11 seed. Quad 1 probabilities at residence in opposition to Auburn and on the highway in opposition to Arkansas give sophomore John Petty & Co. the means to take action. (Up to date: March 2)

American

Locks: Houston, Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple

Work to do

UCF Knights

There was already quite a bit to love a couple of UCF group that had only one dangerous loss (Florida Atlantic in November) even when it did not have any actually nice wins. Now, that second want has been addressed. The Knights went on the highway and did what no different group’s been capable of do in 2018-19: Johnny Dawkins’ males received 69-64 at Houston. Collin Smith picked a pleasant second to attain a season-high 21 factors on Eight-of-15 capturing contained in the arc. The victory marks, form of, UCF’s first Quad 1 win of the season. (The win at South Florida was Quad 1 when it occurred, however not for lengthy.) The Knights will probably carry a better seed than their earlier spot on the No. 11 line when the following set of mock brackets is launched. (Up to date: March 2)

Temple Owls

This case is changing into clearer and clearer: Temple received a house recreation in opposition to Houston, interval. That, it seems, could also be kind of all the pieces the Owls have to indicate on their profile. No extra Quad 1 probabilities stay till and except this group sees an opponent from the highest tier of the American within the convention match. Within the meantime, the Owls need to hope their signature victory is sufficient to get it performed, a want that, to be clear, was performed no favors by UCF’s much more spectacular win on the Cougars’ residence flooring. (Up to date: March Three)

Others

Locks: Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo
Needs to be in: Wofford
Work to do: VCU, Utah State, Belmont, Saint Mary’s, Furman, Lipscomb

Needs to be in

Wofford Terriers

The Southern Convention has by no means despatched an at-large group to the NCAA match, however there is a first time for all the pieces. Certainly, Wofford is quick changing into a foregone conclusion on this dialogue as a result of the Terriers are 26-Four, with the losses coming to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State. Mike Younger’s group moreover owns Quad 1 wins at Furman, UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State. Lastly, it is value noting Wofford received at South Carolina by 20, although that reveals up on the profile as a Quad 2 victory. In reality, the Terriers are an ideal 20-Zero in opposition to Quads 2, Three and Four.(Up to date: March 2)

Work to do

VCU Rams

Mike Rhoades’ males made issues fascinating and suspenseful however ended up avoiding the Quad Three loss and profitable 69-66 at Richmond. At 23-6 general and in sole possession of first place within the Atlantic 10, VCU has a No. 10 seed ready for it later this month if mock brackets are to be trusted. There are not any remaining Quad 1 alternatives for the Rams even in any potential A-10 match recreation, however the 54-53 win at Texas in December will proceed to fill that want on the profile fairly satisfactorily. (Up to date: March 2)

Utah State Aggies

That may do it: Utah State’s 81-76 win at residence over Nevada might effectively get this group into the sector of 68. Make that “very possible will” if the Aggies can keep away from the virtually overwhelming trap-game dynamics and truly deal with enterprise once they play at Colorado State this week. A win in Fort Collins would guarantee USU not less than a share of the Mountain West regular-season title. True, that exact banner hasn’t all the time translated right into a bid (ask San Diego State about 2016 someday), however, in a yr when the Wolf Pack have been within the high 15 of the nationwide rankings the complete season, it must be a part of a really compelling case for the committee. Craig Smith’s group entered the Nevada recreation ranked within the mid-30s within the NET and already owned a Quad 1 win on a impartial flooring over Saint Mary’s. Issues are wanting good in Logan. (Up to date: March 2)

Belmont Bruins

Belmont received a recreation in Pauley Pavilion in opposition to UCLA in December, however (followers in Westwood will wish to cease studying proper right here) it is the truth that Rick Byrd’s group swept a nonconference home-and-away sequence with native rival Lipscomb that actually brightens a group sheet in 2019. Now the Bruins of Nashville are competing with Ja Morant and Murray State for Ohio Valley Convention supremacy. Morant possible has OVC Participant of the Yr locked up (Bubble Watch is out on a limb right here), however in another season voters can be taking a really lengthy have a look at Dylan Windler and his prolific but extremely environment friendly scoring as a stretch-Four. Belmont is variously proven as one of many final groups in or as lurking simply exterior the sector in most projections, however at 25-Four, Byrd’s guys have received 13 straight and want to run the desk. (Up to date: March 2)

Saint Mary’s Gaels

Oh, what might need been. No, Bubble Watch does not imply the 69-55 loss to Gonzaga in Moraga. The Bulldogs are wanting an increasing number of like a group of future, and Mark Few’s guys operating the desk within the West Coast Convention was by no means going to be an enormous upset. As a substitute, take into consideration the four-point losses Saint Mary’s recorded in opposition to Mississippi State and LSU in November and December, respectively. Both a kind of video games moved below the win column would make this a a lot stronger profile for the Gaels. As it’s, nonetheless, the only Quad 1 win approaching the highway at New Mexico State won’t be enough to get SMC into the sector of 68. That stated, Saint Mary’s stays in Bubble Watch attributable to its lovely NET rating and a collective and incorrigible ignorance on the planet exterior the committee room regarding what precisely that may imply in yr one of many new metric’s reign. (Up to date: March 2)

Furman Paladins
It is a mark of how robust the Southern Convention is in 2019 that Furman can lose at residence to Wofford and, at 24-6 general, nonetheless be within the dialogue for an at-large bid. No, the Paladins aren’t “must be in” materials simply but, however Bob Richey’s group does have that memorable Quad 1 win at Villanova, and the Dins might be helped alongside by the mighty SoCon in nonetheless one other method. The loss to the Terriers drops Furman within the convention title race to such an extent that it is conceivable Richey’s guys might see Wofford within the league match previous to the title recreation. A 3rd recreation in opposition to the Terriers on a impartial flooring in Asheville, North Carolina, can be a Quad 1 alternative. (Up to date: March 2)

Lipscomb Bisons
After a expensive Quad Three loss at Florida Gulf Coast, Lipscomb completed its common season with wins at residence over NJIT and on the highway over North Alabama. The Bisons present two Quad 1 wins on their profile, at TCU and at Liberty, and their NET rating, even after the FGCU recreation, remained larger than these of groups like St. John’s, Seton Corridor and Arizona State. Then once more, that very same rating can also be 10 or 15 spots decrease than ones carried by different bubbly aspirants like Utah State and Saint Mary’s. Maybe most daunting, nonetheless, is the truth that Lipscomb’s performed with Quad 1 alternatives. Even one other assembly with Liberty within the Atlantic Solar match would happen, if it happens, on the house flooring of the top-seeded Bisons and would thus qualify as Quad 2. Such a gathering, anyway, would happen within the title recreation. Securing an auto bid by profitable three residence video games seems extra possible on paper than does an at-large. (Up to date: March 2)


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