Jay Bilas’ NCAA event rankings: Candy 16 version

The 2019 NCAA event has been one other nice nationwide championship occasion. In fact, those that are uneducated within the recreation, mistaking shut contests for good basketball, declare that this event is a yawner as a result of it would not meet their normal for leisure worth — not sufficient buzzer-beaters or backdoor covers.

Duke’s win over UCF got here down to 2 minutes of back-and-forth drama. Here is how the Blue Devils superior.

There are a complete lot of acquainted faces on this Candy 16. Here is how we’re rating them heading into the second weekend.

Sixteen packages stay within the 2019 NCAA event. Not all 16 fan bases have an equal degree of expectation for what occurs subsequent.

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As a substitute, you have got a affirmation of what The Bilastrator instructed you within the common season (a daily season that issues in basketball): that just a few high groups had been separated from the unwashed lots, that there was a really comfortable bubble and that there was solely a handful of “little guys” who had been official threats to the highest groups. When analytics gurus instructed you there have been “traditionally nice groups,” The Bilastrator pushed again and instructed you that his skilled eye and big mind decided that the center and finish of the pack had been comfortable, which made the higher center and really high look a bit higher.

The Candy 16 is fascinating. Normally, after a loopy first two days by which just a few huge pictures are picked off like wildebeests that stray from the herd crossing a crocodile-infested river, the event normalizes, and the cream rises. By late Sunday evening, there are normally 13 main convention groups and three mid-major groups making up the Candy 16. This yr is a bit totally different. The highest 14 groups within the KenPom rankings superior. All 4 No. 1 seeds superior. All 4 No. 2 seeds superior. All 4 No. Three seeds superior. Two No. four seeds superior. One No. 5 seed superior. One double-digit seed superior, a 12-seed.

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Not faring effectively to this point? Join TC Second Likelihood and make your picks for the Candy 16!

In the meantime, 14 of the Candy 16 groups are from Energy 5 conferences. 5 ACC groups superior. 4 SEC groups superior. Three Massive Ten groups superior. One Massive 12 workforce superior. One Pac-12 workforce superior. Houston and Gonzaga superior. Each workforce that School GameDay visited this season is within the Candy 16.

As The Bilastrator instructed you in January, there may be not a protracted listing of groups that may win the entire thing. There are a half-dozen groups which might be nationwide championship-worthy, and all are nonetheless alive within the event. There are a pair extra that may sneak to a Closing 4 if one of many huge pictures had been to fall down and have a disaster. However as you had been instructed in so many editions of The Bilas Index this season, there are a choose few that may reduce down the nets in Minneapolis whereas freezing their tokuses off. Now that we’re all the way down to 16 groups, The Bilastrator will gladly offer you The Bilas Index: Candy 16 Version. You are welcome.

The Bilastrator is aware of Zion Williamson and the Blue Devils are beatable … and nonetheless the workforce to beat. Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports activities

1. Duke Blue Devils

The Blue Devils superior in dramatic vogue with a nail-biting win over UCF. That is essentially the most proficient workforce, with three lottery picks, two of whom can rating nearly at will within the paint. Duke’s paint scoring comes largely from its protection, drives and offensive rebounds. Duke defends the ball and will get out into the open ground in addition to any workforce in America, and the one issues that may cease Duke are poor perimeter capturing and foul bother. Any workforce that has Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett is the most effective workforce. Can this workforce be crushed? Completely. However so can each different workforce on this listing.

2. North Carolina Tar Heels

Two months in the past, it might have been tough to think about that North Carolina can be this good. For individuals who did not know or refused to confess it, Roy Williams is actually one of many nice coaches of all time. He won’t give in, and he develops his workforce and gamers in addition to anyone ever. The development of the Tar Heels’ protection, the relentless pursuit of the ball on the glass and the dogged willpower to run are all wonderful to look at — and ridiculously constant. Cameron Johnson is among the nice (and underappreciated) faculty gamers this season. He by no means misses. Kenny Williams is the glue, Coby White is the velocity, and Garrison Brooks is the fiber. Luke Maye is the guts, and he is all coronary heart. If there’s a higher group of men taking part in within the event, level them out as a result of they’ve but to indicate themselves.

Three. Virginia Cavaliers

The Cavaliers regarded traumatized within the first half towards Gardner-Webb. They regarded like fearful flyers throughout turbulence, white-knuckling by means of the flight, which isn’t any method to play. The disaster of final season’s UMBC loss weighed on everybody’s thoughts and was not misplaced on the gamers. If Virginia had misplaced that recreation, it might’ve been like if Michael Phelps misplaced in an Olympic prelim by drowning. Issues normalized within the second half, and Virginia has been itself since. This can be a unbelievable basketball workforce. It’s not as robust within the paint as previous Virginia groups, however this workforce can shoot from a number of spots, with 4 gamers capturing over 40 % from deep. Kyle Man is a junior JJ Redick together with his capacity to maneuver with out the ball and hit powerful ones, De’Andre Hunter is a lottery choose who can guard 1 by means of 5, and Ty Jerome is among the nation’s greatest passers. Virginia has draw for a Closing 4 too. It ain’t simple, however it’s greater than doable.

four. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Mark Few should be asking what he did to deserve this draw. To achieve Minneapolis together with his workforce in tow, Few has to navigate Florida State and the winner of Texas Tech-Michigan. Yikes. That might be two very bodily, “campaign to attain” video games towards ridiculously good defensive groups. However this can be a ridiculously good offensive workforce. The Gonzaga backcourt is underrated. Josh Perkins is a inventive passer and good scorer, and Zach Norvell is a shot-maker who can get sizzling in a rush. Rui Hachimura is a star, however so is Brandon Clarke. Clarke is a pogo-stick jumper who protects the rim and scores round it like few others within the faculty recreation. Clarke would be the distinction towards Florida State.

5. Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans shouldn’t be this good. With so many accidents, together with the lack of Joshua Langford, it appears unattainable that this workforce could possibly be top-five and nonetheless among the many half-dozen favorites to win the entire thing. Tom Izzo has achieved a masterful job with this group, which isn’t as proficient as a few of his prior Closing 4 groups. Cassius Winston is the most effective passing level guard within the event and the engine of the workforce. However the keys to the workforce are Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman, two guys who’re often called “function gamers.” In the event that they proceed to play at a excessive degree, the Spartans could be champions. Michigan State is considered one of solely 5 groups, all nonetheless alive within the Candy 16, which might be within the high 11 in each adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive effectivity.

6. Kentucky Wildcats

This one is easy. Kentucky is top-five if PJ Washington is wholesome and taking part in. Kentucky shouldn’t be top-10 with out him. The win over Wofford was among the finest wins of the event as a result of the Wildcats usually are not the highly effective inside scoring and ending workforce with out Washington, one of many nation’s greatest gamers. Kentucky’s protection was stellar towards among the finest capturing groups within the nation in Wofford, a top-10 offensive workforce. That protection will maintain Kentucky aggressive towards anybody, however to attain with anybody, Washington must be within the lineup.

7. Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines have an incredible draw. The sport towards Texas Tech pits the 2 greatest defensive groups within the nation, however Michigan has higher offense. Will that carry the day? Zavier Simpson, often called “Captain Hook” for his operating hook shot that he banks off the glass, is not a legal responsibility from the foul line, and that could possibly be the distinction late in a recreation. With a wholesome Charles Matthews, Michigan is in an incredible place to succeed in the Closing 4.

eight. Tennessee Volunteers

An old-school workforce with gamers who grew up collectively, the Volunteers are totally ready for this problem. The matchup with Purdue might be decided by Tennessee’s capacity to restrict Carsen Edwards, the most effective scorer remaining within the event. Jordan Bone is the most effective level guard within the SEC, and Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield are a formidable, undersized tandem of scoring frontcourt gamers. Tennessee can rating with nearly anybody. The query is whether or not Tennessee can defend and rebound on the defensive finish at a excessive degree for prolonged stretches.

9. Florida State Seminoles

This workforce is hard to take care of due to its measurement, athleticism and unimaginable depth of expertise. Leonard Hamilton brings in huge, robust physique after huge, robust physique. This workforce performs arduous and is relentless on the defensive finish. The best way to beat Florida State is to make the Seminoles cough the ball up, which they do at an almost 20 % clip. Florida State has received 15 of its previous 17 video games, dropping solely to Duke and North Carolina.

10. LSU Tigers

Gifted and athletic, with two shot-makers and playmakers in Skylar Mays and Tremont Waters, LSU is sweet. The best way to beat the Tigers is to rebound the ball. The LSU initial-shot protection is sweet, however the Tigers are weak on the defensive glass. Michigan State can exploit that if the Spartans don’t flip the ball over.

11. Texas Tech Purple Raiders

That is the most effective defensive workforce within the nation, and the offense has persistently improved the previous two months. Do not get caught up within the numbers with this workforce as a result of solely the numbers of the previous month really matter. That’s who Texas Tech is. Jarrett Culver is a spectacular participant who can have the chance to indicate it off. He is among the greatest and best gamers within the nation. He’s a star now, however he’s simply scratching the floor of how good he’s going to be. That is scary.

12. Houston Cougars

The Cougars are powerful as nails. Undersized at nearly each place, Houston fights. The Cougars struggle for rebounds, struggle for place, struggle for unfastened balls and struggle for respect. Nicely, they’ve the latter, and they’re going to proceed to struggle for the previous three. Will Houston beat Kentucky? With a wholesome PJ Washington, in all probability not. With out Washington, Houston will win. It’s that straightforward. I like this Houston workforce.

13. Purdue Boilermakers

This is a superb offensive workforce — and never simply due to the greatness of Carsen Edwards. Watch this workforce run offense; it’s stunning. On the defensive finish, Purdue is excellent however not fairly as highly effective. Nojel Japanese is an underrated defender, and he can guard anybody. Purdue has crushed LSU, Florida State, Michigan and Michigan State this season. The Boilermakers are able to beating Tennessee. They’d not be favored towards Virginia.

14. Auburn Tigers

The Tigers had the most effective efficiency of the event towards Kansas, and so they performed fearless offensive basketball. Auburn brings chaos at each ends of the ground, turning you over and stretching you out with fearless Three-point capturing. Bryce Brown and Jared Harper make up a superb backcourt, however they aren’t alone in significance. Six Tigers have hit 30 or extra Three-pointers this season, and Auburn turns opponents over on 25 % of possessions. This workforce is a ache to play.

15. Virginia Tech Hokies

With a wholesome Justin Robinson, the Hokies are legit. What Virginia Tech does in addition to anybody is shoot the ball from deep (39.5 %, ninth within the nation). They run nice actions, and so they have a flexible huge man in Kerry Blackshear Jr. He can hit from deep and drive it, and he’s a superb passer out of the excessive publish and low publish.

16. Oregon Geese

What a turnaround for Oregon. The Geese have received 10 in a row on account of protection (15th in adjusted defensive effectivity, per KenPom), Kenny Wooten’s shot-blocking and ending, and Payton Pritchard’s management, scoring and passing. The Geese can unfold you out, and so they play with deliberate velocity on each ends. This workforce is not fast-paced (328th in tempo), however when it has an opportunity to run, it runs.

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