Is D.Ok. Metcalf Only a Stronger Stephen Hill? His Mix Outcomes are Excessive

D.Ok. Metcalf took the NFL Mix by storm … effectively, in a number of occasions. The freakishly sturdy broad receiver appears like a tank. He then went out and ran a four.33 40-yard sprint, had an excellent vertical and broad soar, and had 27 bench press reps. However then, he carried out poorly within the three-cone and shuttle drills, which check brief space quickness.

How excessive have been his outcomes? I went via the Mix stats again to 2000, and there have been 116 broad receivers of roughly comparable measurement, inside 1 inch in peak and 20 kilos in weight, who’ve examined there earlier than this season. Right here’s the place he ranks in comparison with these historic outcomes.

2nd greatest in 40 time (Darrius Heyward-Bey, four.30, 2009)
tied for eighth greatest vertical (Chris Conley, 45 inches, 2015)
tied for many bench press reps (Greg Little, 27, 2011)
4th greatest broad soar (Chris Conley, 139, 2015)
4th worst Three-cone drill time (all others in backside 5 went undrafted)
4th worst shuttle drill time (Marcus Easley, four.60, 2010)

So, he was both within the high 10% of elite athleticism … or within the backside 10%, relying on the drill. That basically is one thing, and the query is how groups view that weird profile. Folks will level to DeAndre Hopkins (who’s 6’1″ and never on this pattern) as additionally working a four.50 within the shuttle, however he’s very a lot the exception.

So to see who had the same profile to Metcalf, I took that group of 116 gamers, calculated the usual deviation of ends in every class, and got here up with similarity scores. (Each normal deviation distinction in every of the six classes was price 50 factors off).

Right here have been probably the most comparable gamers on the Mix, and I color-coded their classes so you can see the place they have been comparable and totally different. Darkish Inexperienced means inside zero.5 normal deviation of Metcalf’s lead to that class. Mild inexperienced is greater than zero.5 however inside 1.5 normal deviations. Blue is between 1.5 and a pair of.5 normal deviations, and Purple is for classes the place they have been very dissimilar. These are the Prime 12, or principally probably the most comparable 10% of Mix contributors of comparable peak and measurement.

His Mix outcomes are similar to Stephen Hill, besides Metcalf is way stronger and Hill was higher within the Three-cone drill (however then once more, everybody was higher in that drill). His Mix outcomes additionally present a sooner Jonathan Baldwin. Greg Little is comparable due to the bench press and vertical, however Little was faster within the brief space drills. Chris Conley was an athletic freak on the Mix who was not as sturdy as Metcalf, however extra explosive in some drills.

As for the Julio Jones comparisons, the most important downside there’s that Julio was manner higher within the brief space quickness drills (however not as sturdy within the bench). Julio Jones was sixth within the Three-cone drill out of this group of 116, and common on the shuttle. Groups must determine if that profile distinction issues.

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