I’ll have my full bracket projections late tonight coming into convention match week, as soon as the ultimate common season video games have been performed. However yesterday was a giant day on the bubble, with one convention match wrapping up and placing Ja Morant and Murray State within the match, and Belmont squarely on the bubble. That, mixed with a number of huge wins by groups close to the minimize line, has altered the outlook. Proper now, it’s nonetheless cloudy, and there are about 10 groups proper close to the minimize line the place a outcome or two may swing it.
However take note we’re about to embark on per week the place the variety of at-large spots may shrink by 2-Three spots. Except Wofford, Nevada, Buffalo, and Washington/Arizona State all win their convention tournaments, you will note some groups projected as auto bids transfer to the at-large pool. That additionally doesn’t account for an enormous upset, like somebody knocking off Gonzaga, or the Massive East mess the place loads of groups may win it, together with a crew that in any other case wouldn’t get in.
I’ve 32 groups within the match, and also you’ll simply need to see who I mission tonight for the highest of the bracket. I also needs to say go mess around with the instruments at BartTorvik.com, which I’ve been utilizing to search out comparable groups and assess the bubble.
VERY LIKELY IN
These groups are in all probability in good condition no matter what occurs, however don’t tempt destiny or a shortened bubble.
VCU: Barring a loss within the quarterfinal matchup, I believe they’re secure. Even then, they’re in all probability nonetheless in, however such a loss would assure the bubble shrinks anyway, which is why I solely have them as very possible in.
UCF: Wins at Houston and at dwelling in opposition to Cincinnati nearly definitely locked up a bid. A 3rd win at Temple would have sealed it. For now, they appear nearly sure to fall in that Eight/9 vary, and the one factor that might make issues nervy is a right away loss.
WASHINGTON: I do know they misplaced to Oregon yesterday, and the Pac-12 isn’t a powerhouse. They’re nonetheless Eight-6 in opposition to the highest two quadrants with just one dangerous loss (at Cal). I don’t suppose they need to go shedding within the Pac-12 Quarters although.
SETON HALL: have nearly definitely moved themselves into the sphere with this week’s sweep of Marquette and Villanova. A loss to Georgetown within the first spherical would no less than hold the door open, and permit the Hoyas to stay alive themselves to seize an unlikely auto bid.
MINNESOTA: Groups like Minnesota nearly all the time get in, at round a 10 seed. That’s the place they appear focused, and solely a loss in that 7/10 or Eight/9 Massive Ten opener may make that get nervy. In any other case, they’ve in all probability completed simply sufficient.
These groups may want one other outcome relying on the way it goes. They’d be in above the Dayton play-in sport line proper now however weak to huge outcomes from bubble groups under them.
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes may verify it with a house win over Wisconsin, which might be their greatest win of the 12 months together with the opener at Cincinnati. A loss, although, would depart them considerably weak to one more loss within the Eight/9 sport of the Massive Ten match and being nervous on Choice Sunday.
SYRACUSE: They might have locked it up with a highway win at Clemson by taking down a direct competitor. It didn’t occur. A loss to the BC/Pitt winner is one thing they wish to keep away from to remain above the bubble fray.
TEMPLE: The UCF win might need been sufficient to place them in. I say may, as a result of the committee appears to be like at shiny strains like Quad 1 and Quad 2, when there are shades of grey. UCF is holding on as a Quad 1 dwelling win, barely. The win at Missouri simply barely dropped out as a Quad 1 highway win. They could possibly be Three-6 or 1-6 in opposition to Quad 1 relying on how outcomes go, and I want I used to be being sarcastic about that mattering.