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Bracketology: Bubble More likely to Shrink By Three Spots Because of Bid Thieves

The 2019 bubble might look weak if we evaluate to previous seasons. However that’s by evaluating the present bubble outlook to the completed merchandise of different seasons. The truth is 2019 presents an above common variety of lifelike bid thief alternatives, the place a group that might in any other case be exterior the sector takes an computerized spot, and the projected winner of that league then bumps to one of many at-large picks.

Right here is my present projected outlook of groups on the bubble:

Final 4 at-larges with byes: Syracuse, Oklahoma, Utah State, Seton Corridor

Final 4 at-larges (enjoying in Dayton): Central Florida, Minnesota, Arizona State, Furman

Different projected computerized bids seeded 11 and 12: VCU, Belmont, Lipscomb

First 4 at-larges out: Alabama, Nebraska, Temple, Butler

However realistically, most or all of these groups within the Final 4 In can be out as soon as the auto bids begin rolling in, and the bubble would look lots completely different.

Utilizing the auto bid share estimates by Bart Torvik, I’ve received three.6 bids as the typical quantity that can be claimed by groups, who would in any other case not be within the area, from conferences the place the projected auto bid chief is presently in my Prime 50 (seeded as a 12 or higher). Right here’s my breakdown of the percentages of a bid thief coming from the varied conferences:

Ohio Valley (69%): Belmont has an honest sufficient at-large case to go to Dayton in the event that they don’t win the title, and the OVC has Murray State and Ja Morant lurking. If Belmont had been to, say, lose within the ultimate to the Racers, they might be sitting on the bubble with a 27-5 file, and a highway win at UCLA to go together with two wins over Lipscomb and a highway win at Murray State, and one of many losses at Purdue.

MAC (53%): Buffalo is just about a match lock at this level, however since they’re the one group that would win the convention tourney and be an at-large, this presents an actual chance of a spot going away.

Pac-12 (49%): The Pac-12 is means down this 12 months, to the purpose that Washington is the one group clearly within the area, with Arizona State proper on the bubble. If anybody else wins the convention tourney, or if the Solar Devils win it to solidify there spot, the bubble shifts.

Atlantic-10 (48%): Like Buffalo within the MAC, Virginia Commonwealth is the one group within the A-10 that appears slated for the sector for the time being. However this match at all times produces upsets and it appears extremely probably another person might declare the auto spot, bumping VCU to the at-large pool. With a highway win at Texas and a impartial courtroom win over one other potential bubble group in Temple highlighting their work, I believe they might find yourself on the right aspect of the cutoff in that case.

Atlantic Solar (32%): Lipscomb is a heavy favourite to win the A-Solar, however upsets occur, and Liberty has already crushed them as soon as. The Bisons would have an honest at-large case with a NET rating within the Prime 50 and a highway win at TCU.

Southern (24%): Wofford and Furman each have at-large instances, and Wofford is in fairly fine condition. Wofford’s solely 4 losses are to North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma and Mississippi State, and they’re presently unbeaten in a Southern Convention with three different Prime 100 groups by NET rating. Furman received at Villanova within the non-conference and has an enormous residence sport in opposition to Wofford subsequent week that would bolster an at-large case.

American (23%): Houston and Cincinnati are in and UCF is on the fitting aspect of the bubble, but when somebody like Temple or Memphis jumps up and wins the match that reduces the at-large spots.

Aug 21, 2018; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Tigers mens basketball coach Penny Hardaway smiles whereas speaking throughout an look on the Memphis Rebounders annual preseason banquet on the Laurie-Walton Household Basketball Heart. Necessary Credit score: Brad Vest/The Business Enchantment by way of USA TODAY NETWORK

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Aug 21, 2018; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Tigers mens basketball coach Penny Hardaway smiles whereas speaking throughout an look on the Memphis Rebounders annual preseason banquet on the Laurie-Walton Household Basketball Heart. Necessary Credit score: Brad Vest/The Business Enchantment by way of USA TODAY NETWORK

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Mountain West (21%): Nevada is the heavy favourite and Utah State is on the bubble. Fresno State leads the listing of bid thieves that would win the convention match.

Large East (20%): The Large East actually has solely three groups solidly within the area, and Marquette and Villanova aren’t the dominant high seeds you see in different energy conferences, so somebody might shock right here.

WCC (15%): Gonzaga would have to be upset, however San Francisco, St. Mary’s, or BYU are all on the incorrect aspect of the minimize line now however succesful.

Large Ten, SEC, ACC, and Large 12 (

Add all that up, and three bid thieves, and perhaps extra, seem to be a really actual chance in a month.

Subsequent up are my full seeding projections.

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